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2024-11-12

The Future of Mobility as a Multistage Transformation Process

Converging technologies in mobility, energy, and urban planning will fundamentally reshape individual mobility over the coming decades. These forces work together to create a more efficient, sustainable, and user-centered mobility landscape. However, this transformation process will take decades and already requires the creation of fundamental technical and legal prerequisites to achieve the goal of an autonomous and sustainable mobility system. It’s important to note that this perspective is based on today’s level of knowledge, and emerging technologies for energy generation and transmission could significantly impact the transformation process, potentially shifting current assumptions and development goals. The following provides an outlook on how the interactions between these technologies could affect mobility, including implications for road construction and urban planning.

1. Autonomous Driving and Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Autonomous driving, supported by Artificial Intelligence (AI), has the potential to make traffic safer and more efficient. Currently, however, these technologies are at various stages of development (Level 1 to Level 4), and technical and legal challenges must be resolved before fully autonomous mobility can be achieved. Vehicle-to-vehicle communication (V2V) plays a crucial role here, enabling the fast and secure transmission of relevant data as the volume of data increases with higher levels of autonomy.
o Interactions: Autonomous vehicles will fundamentally change traffic behavior, depending on the level of autonomy and vehicle communication development. Communication between vehicles and infrastructure (V2X) could optimize traffic flow, prevent congestion, and improve road safety. Higher autonomy levels will also promote new vehicle concepts that are more compact and space-efficient, potentially reducing street width. This development offers potential for urban redesign, freeing up more space for public areas.

2. New Battery Technology
Advances in battery technology, such as solid-state batteries and innovative materials, promise improved range, longevity, and charging times for electric vehicles. These technological advancements are accelerating the adoption and expansion of electric mobility and may allow for smaller, more efficient vehicle concepts optimized for urban needs.
o Interactions: Enhanced battery efficiency supports the development of lighter and more compact vehicles. These vehicles could occupy less road space and operate energy-efficiently in urban environments. New vehicle concepts will also further shift user behavior, as vehicle ownership increasingly gives way to flexible sharing and on-demand services.

3. Changing User Behavior and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)
More people are opting for “Mobility as a Service” (MaaS) rather than vehicle ownership. In urban areas, car-sharing, ride-sharing, and on-demand services continue to grow. With the introduction of autonomous vehicles, 24/7 available services could be realized, which would significantly reduce the need for urban parking spaces.
o Interactions: As fewer people own personal vehicles, urban space previously used for parking can be redesigned. New green spaces, parks, and additional housing could be created. Compact and efficient micro-mobility solutions, such as e-scooters and autonomous bicycles, could be seamlessly integrated into the urban traffic network, increasing space for pedestrians and cyclists.

4. Increasing Efficiency of Drive Systems and Vehicles
Technological advances in drive systems, such as highly efficient electric motors, lightweight materials, aerodynamics, and improved software, reduce vehicle energy consumption and lower dependence on fossil fuels. The dominance of zero-emission vehicles is a crucial step toward climate-friendly mobility.
o Interactions: More efficient vehicles require less energy, which eases the load on charging infrastructure and reduces overall energy consumption. Compact and energy-efficient vehicle designs could become more widespread in urban areas, further reducing the need for extensive road networks and parking areas, thereby creating space for green zones.

5. Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) and New Energy Development
Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology allows electric vehicles to function as mobile energy storage, feeding electricity back into the grid. Electric vehicles could store energy while idle and release it as needed. With the expansion of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, the energy supply for these vehicles will increasingly become more sustainable.
o Interactions: Through V2G technology, vehicles could contribute to grid stability and help balance peak loads. Smart urban planning with strategically placed charging stations and the integration of solar panels into buildings, overhead coverings, and even roads could improve energy supply efficiency without requiring large parking areas for charging.

6. Road Construction and Urban Planning
Road construction and urban planning are increasingly being adapted to the new demands of mobility and the potential of smart technologies. The trend is toward reducing paved areas and reclaiming space for public life. Transportation infrastructure is becoming increasingly dynamic and efficiently controlled through connected and sensor-based technologies.
o Interactions: Narrower streets for compact, autonomous vehicles could create more space for public green areas and gathering places. As vehicle ownership declines, large areas previously used for parking are freed up. Underground or less intrusive traffic systems for autonomous vehicles could further ease urban centers, allowing for their transformation into pedestrian zones and bike paths.

7. New Vehicle Concepts
Vehicle technology is evolving toward concepts optimized for urban use. Lightweight construction, compact designs, and low energy requirements define new designs, minimizing street width and ensuring high stability and safety.
o Interactions: These new vehicles could be used particularly as car-sharing fleets in cities, optimizing space usage. Smaller roads and space-saving parking options would reduce the need to pave large areas for traffic structures, opening new possibilities for green and livable urban designs.

Conclusion: Long-term Transformation through Targeted Foundation Work
Converging technologies in mobility, energy, and urban planning have the potential to profoundly change individual mobility. However, this transformation will take decades, and its success depends on timely creation of the necessary foundations. Autonomous, electric, and efficient vehicles, along with smart infrastructures, offer the possibility of reducing paved surfaces, freeing space for public areas, green spaces, and communal use.
Cities will increasingly become smart and connected environments that not only manage mobility efficiently but also improve the quality of life for their residents. However, this outlook is based on today’s knowledge. Emerging developments in energy generation and transmission technologies could have a profound impact, potentially rendering previous technologies and planning obsolete or requiring substantial adjustment. This could lead to a mobility landscape that is far more flexible and efficient, with unforeseen ecological and social potential.